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1 hour ago, smallspy said:

Considering the lead time for these things, there's no way that this is "breaking news". They would have had to have ordered them over a year ago.


Dan

It’s definitely news to most, if not, all of us, regardless of the potential lead time. This is, of course, assuming an order has actually been place. 
 

Logically, it doesn’t even make sense for Grandlinq to have ordered them last year unless they were a result of the delay settlement. Why would they have needed additional vehicles before the line was even running? It’s a surprise to everyone that the line is getting daily ridership levels of 20K PPD already, and trains are only running every 10 minutes. With 14 vehicles, assuming vehicle reliability is optimal, frequencies better than every 8 minutes can theoretically be achieved, so there’s definitely room for additional service without needing more vehicles. Even with 10-minute service, the line, through the vast majority of the day, is more than adequately serviced. While trains will occasionally be at or over capacity, its never a cyclic occurrence. 

 

Perhaps vehicle reliability is the reason for the addition of vehicles. If this is the case, I can’t see why this would have been predicted last year with the line not running. From what I’ve heard, the reason the MDBF is at its current level is because of all the vehicle collisions. 

 

In general, it’s not like they’re ordering 50 or even 20 vehicles, so it is possible that grandlinq just swapped production slots with Metrolinx, especially since they don’t need their vehicles for another year and a half, likely more. I’m genuinely curious to see what these vehicles would really be used for.

 

11 hours ago, TTC 9701 said:

Hopefully they order some buses for ion as well. 9 branded buses with zero spare.

They have a contract with NOVA for the foreseeable future. I can’t see them ordering more BRT buses any time soon.

 

what really surprises me is that the RoW continues to serve the iXpress routes with regular buses. Given the separate branding, I would have thought they’d receive brt buses with the Ixpress branding.

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22 hours ago, Streety McCarface said:

It’s definitely news to most, if not, all of us, regardless of the potential lead time. This is, of course, assuming an order has actually been place.

News? Sure. A lot of people, myself included, didn't know about this order (even if it was long suspected.

 

But "breaking news"? No, that implies that the news is being reported as it happens, or shortly thereafter. The decision made to order these cars was taken some time ago.

 

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Logically, it doesn’t even make sense for Grandlinq to have ordered them last year unless they were a result of the delay settlement. Why would they have needed additional vehicles before the line was even running? It’s a surprise to everyone that the line is getting daily ridership levels of 20K PPD already, and trains are only running every 10 minutes. With 14 vehicles, assuming vehicle reliability is optimal, frequencies better than every 8 minutes can theoretically be achieved, so there’s definitely room for additional service without needing more vehicles. Even with 10-minute service, the line, through the vast majority of the day, is more than adequately serviced. While trains will occasionally be at or over capacity, its never a cyclic occurrence. 

Maybe they were a result of the settlement for the delays. Perhaps as they re-crunched the numbers on the projections, they realized that they short-changed the ridership and need another car or two for service sooner. Perhaps as they received the first cars and as they went over them they decided that it would be best to increase the spares ratio.

 

The bottom line is that there are tons of reasons as to why the decision was made. To claim that there's anything "logical" about it by your standards, however, is pretty arrogant and dismissive on your part. There are lots of decisions that you have no clue as to how they arrived at that conclusion.

 

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In general, it’s not like they’re ordering 50 or even 20 vehicles, so it is possible that grandlinq just swapped production slots with Metrolinx, especially since they don’t need their vehicles for another year and a half, likely more. I’m genuinely curious to see what these vehicles would really be used for.

That would require Metrolinx to agree to having a couple of their cars delayed. Considering how little they think of Bombardier right now, I have no reason to believe that they would agree to that, and certainly my sources throughout the industry feel the same.

 

13 hours ago, Transit 20 said:

they have order due to they found the same issues that TTC found with theres

Is this speculation, or fact? If the latter, what is the source?


Dan

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2 hours ago, smallspy said:

The bottom line is that there are tons of reasons as to why the decision was made. To claim that there's anything "logical" about it by your standards, however, is pretty arrogant and dismissive on your part. There are lots of decisions that you have no clue as to how they arrived at that conclusion.

It was still a deductive argument given the information the public, and some insiders, have. It is still considered a logical argument, but like with every logical argument, it is prone to omitted variable bias. I wouldn't say it's an arrogant conclusion, rather, an ignorant one. 

As I've said before on these forums, I'm here to learn. Getting some things wrong, or being ignorant of some things is a part of that learning. Correct me please, but I ask that you don't assume my intentions are to deceive or inflate my ego. 

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On November 29, 2019 at 9:21 AM, smallspy said:

That would require Metrolinx to agree to having a couple of their cars delayed. Considering how little they think of Bombardier right now, I have no reason to believe that they would agree to that, and certainly my sources throughout the industry feel the same.

Depending on how bad the need for the two extra Ion cars is, would a three way agreement between Ion, Metrolinx and Bombardier to trade two production slots be off the table given the Kitchener LRT is up and running and carrying passengers while none of the Metrolinx lines are open and no dates have been announced yet?  Metrolinx's opinion on Bombardier is probably neither here nor there with respect to discussing the possibility of shuffling two production slots around based on who needs cars sooner rather than later.

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14 hours ago, Wayside Observer said:

Depending on how bad the need for the two extra Ion cars is, would a three way agreement between Ion, Metrolinx and Bombardier to trade two production slots be off the table given the Kitchener LRT is up and running and carrying passengers while none of the Metrolinx lines are open and no dates have been announced yet?  Metrolinx's opinion on Bombardier is probably neither here nor there with respect to discussing the possibility of shuffling two production slots around based on who needs cars sooner rather than later.

Like I said, sure, that is possible.

 

But it is also unlikely. Any disagreements between Metrolinx and Bombardier notwithstanding, Bombardier also has to meet a series of timelines with Metrolinx as well - and they have fallen behind on it (although not as bad as they fell behind on the Toronto Flexity order). For any agreement to exchange production slots to occur, Bombardier would also have to show that the exchange wouldn't adversely affect the ultimate production schedule for the Metrolinx order. And considering that Millhaven is a far, far smaller and less capable facility than Thunder Bay, it would thus be harder for them to ramp up their production rate to account for it.

 

By the way, there is also one other dark horse in all this - the Edmonton order. Sure, Bombardier has already built about 9 or 10 of the cars and stored them on site (as of 2 months ago), but what are the timelines for that order, both interim and final? Swapping production slots around may also affect the schedule of those deliveries - and if the penalties are higher for this order, they may be less willing to do so.

 

Yes, this is a lot of spitballing. There's a lot of details that we just don't know about all of this. But there are a couple of knowns, and what we do know points to it being unlikely that there was a swap of production slots.

 

Dan

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On 11/27/2019 at 3:36 PM, Transit 20 said:

breaking news i been told from contacts at ion there is 2 more trains on order first one is due Feb or march 2020.

Rumor alert: 

Someone else mentioned in a private group that one train would be sent back. Is this perhaps part of the reason we're getting two trains, and if so, what train is being sent back?

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20 hours ago, Transit 20 said:

same issue as TTC with the welding.

I'm surprised it's just one then that needs welding repairs. The first four ION cars were delivered in the same timeframe that TTC cars had issues.

Though wasn't it only the first Ion car that was assembled originally in Thunder Bay? I suppose it's when they stopped doing the welding in Mexico ...

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