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This time next year -after the three trial batches have some mileage, hopefully I’ll have enough practical evidence (maybe even some of it first hand) on them to form some sort of scientific opinion.

Besides the media articles about BYD foreshadowing trouble, even I don’t have the hubris to make a blanket statement one way or the other.

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt” , right?

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19 hours ago, WMATAC40LF said:

IIRC part of the problem for Nova is that they don't have a long-range version available, which is a spec many authorities want.

BYDs might be garbage, but that doesn't mean you can write off everything else.

Electric motors work fine in buses. Ask Dayton RTA, SF MUNI, King County Metro, or TransLink. In fact, Trolleybuses have been around for over 100 years. Now sure, the new buses you're referring to use batteries for onboard energy storage, but that isn't a new idea either. Hybrid buses have been using substantial battery packs for at least two decades now. Of course the number of batteries needs to be scaled up significantly to provide the entire power supply for a fully-electric bus, but that standard has already been achieved. 

Don't get me wrong- there are still questions regarding electric buses, like how charging infrastructure would be laid out, but you shouldn't disregard an entire category of vehicles without a good reason.

 

I'm thinking more along the lines of how they would preform in extreme weather conditions, verse the energy/fuel source itself.

18 hours ago, Bus_Medic said:

This time next year -after the three trial batches have some mileage, hopefully I’ll have enough practical evidence (maybe even some of it first hand) on them to form some sort of scientific opinion.

Besides the media articles about BYD foreshadowing trouble, even I don’t have the hubris to make a blanket statement one way or the other.

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt” , right?

Not just BYD, Designline was a flop too if you guys would recall. Sure, they were not all electric, but they were heading there.

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On 12/10/2018 at 2:24 PM, Chris.A said:

Electric is just not going to work. These TAs are going to regret it.

 

On 12/11/2018 at 12:54 PM, Chris.A said:

I'm thinking more along the lines of how they would preform in extreme weather conditions, verse the energy/fuel source itself.

Your line of thinking is.... interesting.

First it's "these" TA's are going to regret it. I think Valley Metro was in the original quote. So, presumably it's just the transit agencies in the hot climates ("extreme weather conditions"?) who will regret it? Or are you implying that all TA's will regret battery electric buses?

Certainly, using the battery to provide air conditioning and even cooling the battery itself will be detrimental to the range of a battery electric bus.

I was going to suggest that your  "these TA's are going to regret it" quote just refers to transit agencies that operate in extreme heat.... On the other hand, I've seen Reno, Nevada's Proterra's in operation and they seem to be doing ok with their electric bus fleets (2nd generation now I believe).

If you're talking about "extreme weather" in general, besides desert environments, can you provide further specifics on why you think battery electrics won't work?

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Electric buses are the future - it's just a matter of perfecting the technology.  I have no idea if that is going to take 5 years or 25 years but the fact that China is going all out with electric buses and implementing tens of thousands of these vehicles (16,000 in Shenzhen alone) is fast-forwarding the development of this technology.  It will not be instantaneous, as weather extremes and hill-climbing capabilities still have to be worked out, but it will happen.  

The reason that NFI, Nova, Gillig and others are racing to develop electric buses is the fear that BYD will perfect this before they do and become a serious contender in North America.  BYD has stubbed its toe with the Albuquerque debacle but they are not to be taken lightly. 

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8 hours ago, M. Parsons said:

 

Your line of thinking is.... interesting.

First it's "these" TA's are going to regret it. I think Valley Metro was in the original quote. So, presumably it's just the transit agencies in the hot climates ("extreme weather conditions"?) who will regret it? Or are you implying that all TA's will regret battery electric buses?

Certainly, using the battery to provide air conditioning and even cooling the battery itself will be detrimental to the range of a battery electric bus.

I was going to suggest that your  "these TA's are going to regret it" quote just refers to transit agencies that operate in extreme heat.... On the other hand, I've seen Reno, Nevada's Proterra's in operation and they seem to be doing ok with their electric bus fleets (2nd generation now I believe).

If you're talking about "extreme weather" in general, besides desert environments, can you provide further specifics on why you think battery electrics won't work?

We have a history of just Diesel-Electric hybrid buses having battery  problems in the extreme cold as well, hence why I put that there. No to mention if we have another major blackout similar to the 2003 east coast power outage or worse, how will these buses even get around? Diesel and CNG are the key and it should stay that way!

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59 minutes ago, Chris.A said:

We have a history of just Diesel-Electric hybrid buses having battery  problems in the extreme cold as well, hence why I put that there. No to mention if we have another major blackout similar to the 2003 east coast power outage or worse, how will these buses even get around? Diesel and CNG are the key and it should stay that way!

Jesus, you're bloody oblivious.

 

"...a history of just Diesel-Electric hybrid buses having battery problems in the extreme cold....". Got proof? None of the issues with hybrid buses in Toronto had anything to do with the cold. They had everything to do with Toronto's implementation and settings. (And which is why the same buses have seemingly done better elsewhere.)

 

Blackout: What, you've never heard of a generator? The TTC, at the least, has planned for this, and has upgraded the backup generators at the three divisions which will be housing their electric buses. I suspect that other locations have or are doing the same, as frankly it seems prudent.

 

Dan

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2 hours ago, smallspy said:

Jesus, you're bloody oblivious.

 

"...a history of just Diesel-Electric hybrid buses having battery problems in the extreme cold....". Got proof? None of the issues with hybrid buses in Toronto had anything to do with the cold. They had everything to do with Toronto's implementation and settings. (And which is why the same buses have seemingly done better elsewhere.)

 

Blackout: What, you've never heard of a generator? The TTC, at the least, has planned for this, and has upgraded the backup generators at the three divisions which will be housing their electric buses. I suspect that other locations have or are doing the same, as frankly it seems prudent.

 

Dan

You really are stupider than you look as there are multiple  reasons why I know this junk is not going to work. Have you thought of the fact that electric buses require numerous charging facilities to supply electricity to the packs. That being said, those facilities are going to cost money and lots of it. Most systems try to cut cost to the best of their ability by eliminating anything that will not be conducive to long-term savings in operation cost, which usually goes up ever fascial year (whereas funding usually does not). All this shifting to electric buses is going to be costly and will not be efficient  in the long run. Sure,  you cut back on maintaining engines and transmissions, but you replace them with an even more expensive, unproven system. Notice how BYD and Designline buses were mostly failures. The technology wasn't proven and the support systems weren't there. It will take well into the next decade to fully prove if this technology yields both, good travel range and a good amount of savings (and that's of course assuming no other factors come into play). So I must ask again, why replace Clean Diesel buses with Electric ones? One COULD make a case for Compressed Natural Gas, seeing as they too have drawbacks, but Clean Diesel? You can't go wrong. Enough of the electric nonsense.

 

Chris A

4 hours ago, RailBus63 said:

Electric buses are the future - it's just a matter of perfecting the technology.  I have no idea if that is going to take 5 years or 25 years but the fact that China is going all out with electric buses and implementing tens of thousands of these vehicles (16,000 in Shenzhen alone) is fast-forwarding the development of this technology.  It will not be instantaneous, as weather extremes and hill-climbing capabilities still have to be worked out, but it will happen.  

The reason that NFI, Nova, Gillig and others are racing to develop electric buses is the fear that BYD will perfect this before they do and become a serious contender in North America.  BYD has stubbed its toe with the Albuquerque debacle but they are not to be taken lightly. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't BYD have an ongoing investigation going on regarding shady business deals as of late?

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42 minutes ago, Chris.A said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't BYD have an ongoing investigation going on regarding shady business deals as of late?

I'm not aware of any investigation.  The Albuquerque transit agency is suing BYD over their failed bus order and the Los Angles Times did an article about BYD's quality problems.  BYD will get their act together in the U.S. and will very likely try to set up an operation in Canada too (if they're smart, they will locate in Quebec to be eligible for orders in that province). New Flyer and the others better be ready. 

47 minutes ago, Chris.A said:

You really are stupider than you look as there are multiple  reasons why I know this junk is not going to work. Have you thought of the fact that electric buses require numerous charging facilities to supply electricity to the packs. That being said, those facilities are going to cost money and lots of it. Most systems try to cut cost to the best of their ability by eliminating anything that will not be conducive to long-term savings in operation cost, which usually goes up ever fascial year (whereas funding usually does not). All this shifting to electric buses is going to be costly and will not be efficient  in the long run. Sure,  you cut back on maintaining engines and transmissions, but you replace them with an even more expensive, unproven system. Notice how BYD and Designline buses were mostly failures. The technology wasn't proven and the support systems weren't there. It will take well into the next decade to fully prove if this technology yields both, good travel range and a good amount of savings (and that's of course assuming no other factors come into play). So I must ask again, why replace Clean Diesel buses with Electric ones? One COULD make a case for Compressed Natural Gas, seeing as they too have drawbacks, but Clean Diesel? You can't go wrong. Enough of the electric nonsense.

Diesel and CNG were once unproven technologies, too.

Warren Buffett made a major investment in BYD - he's usually not known for throwing away his billions on unproven technologies that have no chance of working. 

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@Chris.A

-some bathroom reading for you to get you up to speed. Toronto has done their homework, arguably more than any other organization to date:

https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2017/November_13/Reports/2018-2040 Bus Green Technology Plan Presentation(November 20.pdf

 

https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2018/June_12/Reports/27_Green_Bus_Technology_Plan_Update.pdf

 

let us know when you’ve finished reading them, as I won’t engage in further discussion with you on the subject until you have.

1 hour ago, RailBus63 said:

I'm not aware of any investigation.  The Albuquerque transit agency is suing BYD over their failed bus order and the Los Angles Times did an article about BYD's quality problems.  BYD will get their act together in the U.S. and will very likely try to set up an operation in Canada too (if they're smart, they will locate in Quebec to be eligible for orders in that province). New Flyer and the others better be ready. 

Diesel and CNG were once unproven technologies, too.

Warren Buffett made a major investment in BYD - he's usually not known for throwing away his billions on unproven technologies that have no chance of working. 

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

There were some accusations of conflict of interest thrown around in this article regarding Los Angeles specifically.

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6 hours ago, Chris.A said:

No to mention if we have another major blackout similar to the 2003 east coast power outage or worse, how will these buses even get around?

And if we run out of fossil fuel reserves, what will we do then? At least you can plan for contingencies with things like generators when it comes to electric vehicles. When there's no fossil fuels left go around, all the buses that run on them will be pretty useless, won't they?

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1 hour ago, RailBus63 said:

I'm not aware of any investigation.  The Albuquerque transit agency is suing BYD over their failed bus order and the Los Angles Times did an article about BYD's quality problems.  BYD will get their act together in the U.S. and will very likely try to set up an operation in Canada too (if they're smart, they will locate in Quebec to be eligible for orders in that province). New Flyer and the others better be ready. 

Diesel and CNG were once unproven technologies, too.

Warren Buffett made a major investment in BYD - he's usually not known for throwing away his billions on unproven technologies that have no chance of working. 

Warren Buffett is a filthy wall street insider....

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2 hours ago, Chris.A said:

You really are stupider than you look as there are multiple  reasons why I know this junk is not going to work. Have you thought of the fact that electric buses require numerous charging facilities to supply electricity to the packs. That being said, those facilities are going to cost money and lots of it. Most systems try to cut cost to the best of their ability by eliminating anything that will not be conducive to long-term savings in operation cost, which usually goes up ever fascial year (whereas funding usually does not). All this shifting to electric buses is going to be costly and will not be efficient  in the long run. Sure,  you cut back on maintaining engines and transmissions, but you replace them with an even more expensive, unproven system. Notice how BYD and Designline buses were mostly failures. The technology wasn't proven and the support systems weren't there. It will take well into the next decade to fully prove if this technology yields both, good travel range and a good amount of savings (and that's of course assuming no other factors come into play). So I must ask again, why replace Clean Diesel buses with Electric ones? One COULD make a case for Compressed Natural Gas, seeing as they too have drawbacks, but Clean Diesel? You can't go wrong. Enough of the electric nonsense.

 

Chris A

"You know" why this "junk" is not going to work? Why don't you fill us in on it, then? Because the "reasons" that you gave us below that comment are nothing more than incoherent ramblings from someone who really isn't able to rub his two brain cells together.

 

Frankly there's not much point to bothering with the rest of your comments. You come across as nothing more than some petulant fanboi rather than someone who is "informed" - and I use that term lightly.

 

Dan

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6 minutes ago, PCC Guy said:

And if we run out of fossil fuel reserves, what will we do then? At least you can plan for contingencies with things like generators when it comes to electric vehicles (it also bears noting that power outages are not forever... you don't see anyone shying away from electric transit just because such a possibility exists). When there's no fossil fuels left go around, all the buses that run on them will be pretty useless, won't they?

Don't let the idiotstream media fool you. This has been a longterm lie. The planet has plenty of untapped regions were such fuel sources can last humanity for thousands of years if not longer. 

6 minutes ago, smallspy said:

"You know" why this "junk" is not going to work? Why don't you fill us in on it, then? Because the "reasons" that you gave us below that comment are nothing more than incoherent ramblings from someone who really isn't able to rub his two brain cells together.

 

Frankly there's not much point to bothering with the rest of your comments. You come across as nothing more than some petulant fanboi rather than someone who is "informed" - and I use that term lightly.

 

Dan

Ok, you want to play hardball? Why don't YOU "educate" everyone here as to why this thread is going to work? Come to me when you have a sensible, well-worded and heavily work cited research essay explaining the benefits of 100% EVs vs other alternative fuels and how to best test them out in various different environments. Until then, shut your mouth, you'd sound smarter that way you incompetent troll. 

27 minutes ago, Bus_Medic said:

@Chris.A

-some bathroom reading for you to get you up to speed. Toronto has done their homework, arguably more than any other organization to date:

https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2017/November_13/Reports/2018-2040 Bus Green Technology Plan Presentation(November 20.pdf

 

https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2018/June_12/Reports/27_Green_Bus_Technology_Plan_Update.pdf

 

let us know when you’ve finished reading them, as I won’t engage in further discussion with you on the subject until you have.

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html

There were some accusations of conflict of interest thrown around in this article regarding Los Angeles specifically.

Oh look, another wannabe knowitall….

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55 minutes ago, MAX BRT said:

CARB in California just voted to mandate a move to zero emission buses over time. Contaminated air there is the biggest reason.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90281612/california-just-decided-to-move-to-100-electric-city-buses

California is just a shithole in general.

37 minutes ago, Bus_Medic said:

My employer of 15 years thinks otherwise.

If your deductive reasoning is a sharp as I think it is, it should’nt take you too long to nail down who they may be.

TTC eh?

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1 hour ago, Bus_Medic said:

Couldn’t possibly be...you just called me a wannabe, remember?

You just dissed the only certified mechanic on this entire board.

Go and rescue Gotham from itself...we’re doing fine here without your advice.

Don't waste the time and effort on that one, not worth it man...

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13 hours ago, Chris.A said:

We have a history of just Diesel-Electric hybrid buses having battery  problems in the extreme cold as well, hence why I put that there. No to mention if we have another major blackout similar to the 2003 east coast power outage or worse, how will these buses even get around? Diesel and CNG are the key and it should stay that way!

Some further reading for you on cold weather testing of battery buses: https://www.edmonton.ca/documents/transit/ETS_Electric_Feasibility_Study.pdf

Lets not forget Winnipeg has been running battery electric buses longer than anyone else. 

Edmonton is still running 4 hybrid buses in colder conditions than Toronto's average coldest temperature (Strathcona County Transit too, and of course St. Albert has winter running now on their BYD's). The simple thing is that you heat the batteries the same way to heat the passenger cabin (and cool them for that matter). Hence, Edmonton's hybrid buses were their first buses with air conditioning as it was needed for the batteries.

How do you refuel a diesel bus when there's no power to run the fuel pump? And sure, there are probably generators tied into fuel pumps at transit garages, however, you said "or worse"... so... how would transit function without electricity for an extended period? How do you maintain buses in a garage without electricity? What if your diesel generator breaks down and you can't fuel your diesel buses? Is it worth staying diesel on the small chance that a large power outage could possibly it one day again vs. the potential advantages and cost savings of electric buses?

You know, we could almost have a productive discussion about the merits of diesel vs. CNG vs. electric buses, but, you clearly don't have any intention of that with half assed arguments, name calling, and providing exactly zero sources to back up your points. I'm probably wasting my time on this.... but here it goes. 

9 hours ago, Chris.A said:

You really are stupider than you look as there are multiple  reasons why I know this junk is not going to work. Have you thought of the fact that electric buses require numerous charging facilities to supply electricity to the packs. That being said, those facilities are going to cost money and lots of it.

Certainly, there's going to be some costs here. In Edmonton's case this has even included strengthening the floor slab for the bus storage area due to the increased weight of the intended type of battery electric buses (the garage has underground employee parking). Ultimately, the costs are going to be determined by what a transit agency wants. 
St. Albert has elected to go with depot charging buses with BYD's charging system. Quite possibly the cheapest option, but, perhaps not the best option.
Edmonton is doing depot charging as well, however, they are looking at scaling their installation for a larger fleet and hands free operation (no plugging buses in). Scaled over a larger fleet, this is probably cheaper than individual chargers for every bus.

Of course, then there's en route charging. Certainly, the charging stations are going to cost more than depot charging, however, you can then cut back on the amount of batteries carried on the bus, while practically eliminating range issues. See the link I provided for life cycle costs of the different technologies and their charging infrastructure. 

Quote

 That being said, those facilities are going to cost money and lots of it. Most systems try to cut cost to the best of their ability by eliminating anything that will not be conducive to long-term savings in operation cost, which usually goes up ever fascial year (whereas funding usually does not). All this shifting to electric buses is going to be costly and will not be efficient  in the long run. Sure,  you cut back on maintaining engines and transmissions, but you replace them with an even more expensive, unproven system

I don't know exactly what you're trying to say here. But I see "operation cost", "funding", and "maintaining" which makes me think this it time to discuss capital costs vs. operating costs. 

When we're talking electric bus charging infrastructure, be it en route chargers, depot chargers, garage modifications, power grid upgrades etc. we're talking one time capital costs that come from one budget.
When we talk fuel costs, maintenance costs, driver costs etc. we are talking operating costs which come from another budget.
When we talk life cycle costs we're talking about the combined costs over a defined life cycle for an entire system including the capital and operating costs. Again, see my link for those life cycle costs. And trust me, diesel is not without it's capital costs. Fuel tank replacements and hydrocarbon remediation at decommissioned transit garages. 

So, certainly there will be increased capital costs to deploy electric buses, but those are one time costs. The saving are then from the reduced operating costs of the buses. And certainly, as the battery charging system ages there will be a capital cost down the road to upgrade or replace. How far down the road? That we don't really know yet, but, I think we need a standardized charging scheme to be adopted, and that is coming along as the technology matures.

As for "unproven", I think it's safe to say we've figured out how to put electricity into batteries, and then to take electricity out of the battery and turn an electric motor. It's a matter of making the storage battery as efficient and energy dense as possible now that has room for improvement, although, it's safe to say that the technology is at an adequate level right now to start the electrification of transit systems.

9 hours ago, Chris.A said:

 Notice how BYD and Designline buses were mostly failures. The technology wasn't proven and the support systems weren't there. It will take well into the next decade to fully prove if this technology yields both, good travel range and a good amount of savings (and that's of course assuming no other factors come into play). So I must ask again, why replace Clean Diesel buses with Electric ones?

You're talking about the Designline bus with the Capstone turbine or whatever it was? That wasn't a battery electric bus so that's irrelevant to this conversation.
And how is BYD mostly a failure? 

I've said it before, I'm not a fan of BYD for a few reasons, however, that's not to say they can't deliver a electric bus that delivers what it's supposed to. Incidentally, I took a quick look into RTD's 30-something fleet of BYD's and couldn't find anything negative besides late delivery (which at this point in time BYD has become somewhat known for). St. Albert's fleet of 7 from my observations seem to be doing just fine. I personally think BYD should have supplied their battery technology for existing bus designs, rather than trying to build their own bus that meets North American standards (BYD started as a battery manufacturer). I think late delivery and quality issues are part of learning how to build a bus for North America, and their issues, and I think artics are best left to diesel buses or en route charging battery buses.

You are right though. It will take into the next decade to prove electric bus technology, and frankly, in the grand scheme of things, that sounds about the right time frame.

Lets think back to the 1920's when the internal combustion engine bus started to get a foothold. The ICE bus started off small. Built on truck frames and what not. Generally limited by the technology of the era. They couldn't compete with the mighty streetcar, but, rather were used to feed it. As the years went on technology improved and engines got bigger. Dedicated buses were being built. Cities evolved and changed and expanded beyond the streetcar lines. Bigger buses showed up in the form of trolleybuses and in some cases the trolleybuses started replacing the streetcar. In time (post WWII) the ICE bus would improve and start to have the passenger capacity to take over from streetcars, and in time replace the trolleybus as well. In Edmonton that took 20+ years between the first ICE bus to the first 40' diesel transit bus.

So, you're absolutely right. It will take into the next decade to perfect and roll out electric buses on a larger scale. But, it took time to roll out large capacity diesel buses, and if someone hadn't put in that effort to develop and experiment and take risks with that technology, we wouldn't have your precious diesel buses today, but would rather be using the horse and buggy. 

To answer your question "Why replace Clean Diesel buses with Electric ones?
Simple all of the usual arguments. Reduced in street emissions/ cleaner, and low life cycle costs than diesel buses.

Now, irreverent diesel Orion fanboy, run along and quit insulting the people that actually help make this discussion board a discussion board and who know what the hell they are talking about.

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15 minutes ago, Frozen Yogurt said:

Maybe someone can fill in the blank here, but I have a question about electric buses: what about the electricity generation/battery production end?

To make a battery, rare metals are required, and to find that we need to mine, often in developing countries with harsh conditions. It seems to me that we here are basing our reduction in emissions by exploiting more other people in other countries. As the demand for electric vehicle grows, aren't we only shifting what we extirpate, instead of fossil fuel we extirpate rare metals? Also, from the raw mineral to a finished battery, doesn't that use lots of energy as well? transportation, manufacture of batteries, refineries, etc.?

e-waste is a huge problem, and I think that batteries do not help the situation. A couple of news stories on e-waste that do not pertain directly to batteries, but is a growing problem with electronics recycling:

https://www.rt.com/news/e-waste-illegal-environment-uk-043/

----

In Edmonton, an argument was made that trolley bus power was "dirty" because our power is generated from coal. So yes, your thoughts of electricity being generated from a "dirty" source is valid, but the efficiency of electricity, and the emissions control of a larger smokestack vs. hundreds of smaller ones, is what is advantageous.

Absolutely, the entire lifecycle from power generation to battery recycling takes a huge amount of energy. I have heard that recycling plastic bottles sometimes takes more energy than producing new ones, but our world would become a landfill quicker.

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1 hour ago, Frozen Yogurt said:

Maybe someone can fill in the blank here, but I have a question about electric buses: what about the electricity generation/battery production end?

To make a battery, rare metals are required, and to find that we need to mine, often in developing countries with harsh conditions. It seems to me that we here are basing our reduction in emissions by exploiting more other people in other countries. As the demand for electric vehicle grows, aren't we only shifting what we extirpate, instead of fossil fuel we extirpate rare metals? Also, from the raw mineral to a finished battery, doesn't that use lots of energy as well? transportation, manufacture of batteries, refineries, etc.?

there are also some new battery solutions in the pipeline that may eliminate, or greatly reduce the amount of rare metals required. These are only in the development stages at this time, but so was Lithium Ion at one time. there's also the possibility of a major breakthrough in Capacitor technology, we've seen quite a bit of research in this area, and in fact several trucking companies are now using large Capacitors as starter "batteries" in test fleets. Cities like Vancouver are in a unique position, as existing trolleybus networks can be used to provide power for charging on route. Many ideas are coming down the pipe in the next few years.

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