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Express691

2021-2030 SkyTrain Procurement

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This RFP will encompass all SkyTrain orders and options within the next decade. 

From the Scope of work at this website (which I highly encourage you to download), the orders and options are as follows:

Base order: 205 cars 41 sets (could be shuffled to include 4-car sets. Do the math to calculate which multiples can be done.)
2021: 30 cars 6 sets, 2025 delivery
2024: 70 cars 14 sets, 2028 delivery
2026: 100 cars 20 sets, 2032 delivery 
2028: 100 cars 20 sets,  2034 delivery
2030: 100 cars 20 sets,  2036 delivery

Included in this order might be replacement for the mark 2s.

By the time all the cars are delivered, I will be into my 30s.

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I believe that not all of the 100-car options will be actually exercised, but they are specified in the RFP because TransLink doesn't know when any future expansions will be approved, so the options are spaced out fairly evenly for future flexibility without having to release a new RFP every time and be subject to the then-available pricing.

If all the Mark 1s are retired when the 41 base 5-car sets arrive, we'll end up with 89 4/5-car trains, consisting of 15+12=27 Mark 2, 21 Mark 3, and 41 5-car trains. Depending on how TransLink sets the frequency for 4-car trains on the M-Line, in theory there will be enough trains for running both the Broadway (to Arbutus) and Fleetwood expansions. (For comparison, currently the M-line uses 23 2-car trains at peak at 200-second frequencies, while the Expo Line uses 41 4/6-car trains at peak at 133 second frequencies + 3 2-car trains for the morning shuttle service, for a total of 67 2/4/6-car trains in service, with some spares.)

My assumption is that the 2021 6-set option is going to be exercised if the Langley extension gets full funding by 2021, and that the 2024 14-set option is for both the Langley and UBC extensions assuming both get funded by 2024 but not before 2021 (and if only one is being funded, fewer options will be exercised e.g. if Langley gets the OK but not UBC, then only 6 sets ordered).

It's possible that the Mk 2s will be replaced, but I think it depends on whether TransLink refurbishes them like they did with the original 1984-1986 Mk 1s. By 2026 the 2001 Mk 2s will be 25 years old; based on the lifespan of the Mk 1s, if they aren't being refurbished they might go between 2026-2030 and if there is a refurbishment process they could last until 2036-2040. The 2009 Mk 2s are 8 years newer, so add another 8 years to those estimates.

 

Edit: Not sure if it was clear, but the RFP seems to imply a base order of 205 cars + up to 400 cars as options specified at the dates above. Judging by the language of the RFP, it seems likely that the 205 car base order will be ordered by 2021 (possibly 2020, given that the first option is to be exercised by the end of 2021), and deliveries may happen before 2025 (given that the first option is supposed to deliver by the end of 2025).

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Let's do some calculation game:

TransLink planned 55-cars (11-trains) for the 22min Langley extension, then using industry standard of 15% spare, that's equal to 9 trains in total, or about 12.3 trains/hr, or a train every 4.8 to 5min.  Given TransLink's plan show 4-5min frequency for Langley branch, let's use 4.8min for the ultimate frequency by 2030.

This gives 2.4min frequency for M-Line, 4.8min for each Expo Branch with 1.6min combined frequency.

Also I remember I read somewhere that the target frequency after this batch of 28 cars arrive is 2.83min / 5.66min... so this will be used for the initial frequencies for the calculation.

At any time spare for each type of train can be no less than 8%

2019-2024: 150 MkI, 108 MkII, 56 MkIII
(assumption - WF-KG 81min rt; WF-PD 88min; WF-BW 20min; VC-LA 78min; 2.83/5.66min; EL req 45+3 trains; ML req 28 trains)
Expo (23x 6-I, 3x 2-II, 9x 4-II, 13x 4-III)
Millennium (28x 2-II)

2024-2026:  Broadway extension - 100-120 MkI, 108 MkII, 261 MkIII
(assumption - VC-AR 98min; ML convert to all 4-cars; 2.7/5.4min frequency; EL req 47+3 trains; ML req 37 trains)
Expo (12x 4-III, 38x 5-III, spare trains for Fleetwood extension testing)
Millennium (13x 6-I, 24x 4-II)

2025-2028: First option (30 cars) - Fleetwood extension - 60-80 MkI, 108 MkII, 291 MkIII
(assumption - WF-FL 100min rt; EL req 50+3 trains; ML req 37 trains)
Expo (10x 4-III, 43x 5-III)
Millennium (9x 6-I, 25 4-II, 3x 4-III)

2028-2032: Second option (70 cars) - Langley extension; retirement of MkI - 108 MkII, 361 MkIII
(assumption - WF-LG 125min rt; EL convert to all 5-cars; removal of short-turns; EL req 55 trains; ML req 37 trains)

Expo (55x 5-III)
Millennium (24x 4-II, 13x 4-III)

2032-2034: Third option (100 cars) - UBC extension, frequency boost - 108 MkII, 461 MkIII
(assumption - LA-UBC 118min; 2.4/4.8min frequency; EL req 62 trains; ML req 50 trains)
Expo (62x 4-III)
Millennium (24x 4-II, 13x 4-III, 13x 5-III)

By 2034, the older batch of MkII could retire, and more of the M-Line would be extended to 5-cars in the process - this requires at about 75 of the 100 cars

The 2036 option would require new line or extension or improved frequency though

 

18 hours ago, briguychau said:

Edit: Not sure if it was clear, but the RFP seems to imply a base order of 205 cars + up to 400 cars as options specified at the dates above. Judging by the language of the RFP, it seems likely that the 205 car base order will be ordered by 2021 (possibly 2020, given that the first option is to be exercised by the end of 2021), and deliveries may happen before 2025 (given that the first option is supposed to deliver by the end of 2025).

Not sure if it meant finish delivery by the end of 2025, or delivery of the first set by the end of 2025.

Either way, for the 2025 and 2028 batch, TransLink can probably adjust the rate of MkI retirement with the rate of MkIII delivery. The refurbished MkI trains are supposed to last until about 2026, so they can still be in use for Broadway and Fleetwood extension before the new trains arrived. They will also need some extra trains to test the new extensions anyways so most MkI should still be around when both Broadway and Fleetwood extension opens.

I would say the Langley extension should probably for the second option.  If magic happened and the extension actually got built before 2028 or so, then they can keep some of the MkI running for a few more years before the new trains arrives.

At this point, I would say the refurbishment of the newer MkI seems unlikely. I would say they most likely retired by the end of the delivery for the second option of 70 cars... unless... some magic happens to the UBC line too...

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I don't think the 2025 and 2028 "batches" are part of the 205. To me it really reads like they want 205 "firm" orders, plus options for 2025, 2028, 2032, 2034, and 2036.

Section 1.2 specifically mentions the 205 new cars, while section 1.3 specifically mentions options.

My theory is that the 205 firm will be to replace all Mk 1 + Arbutus expansion, and then the options are for future expansions and extensions or just fleet growth in general.

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35 minutes ago, briguychau said:

My theory is that the 205 firm will be to replace all Mk 1 + Arbutus expansion, and then the options are for future expansions and extensions or just fleet growth in general.

If that's the case, then I wonder if these options can be exercised for a different base order

On top of this, if BCRTC does not choose to go with Bombardier for this order, then these will most certainly be mark 4s.

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5 hours ago, briguychau said:

I don't think the 2025 and 2028 "batches" are part of the 205. To me it really reads like they want 205 "firm" orders, plus options for 2025, 2028, 2032, 2034, and 2036.

Section 1.2 specifically mentions the 205 new cars, while section 1.3 specifically mentions options.

My theory is that the 205 firm will be to replace all Mk 1 + Arbutus expansion, and then the options are for future expansions and extensions or just fleet growth in general.

Yes the 205 base order and 2025 options are separate order, as stated in my calculation above. I was wondering if the 2025 option meant the the first of the 6 train set will arrive by 2025, or the last.  The only thing I was sure is that the last train from the firm order should arrive before the end of 2025.

As for replacing all MkI with the 205 firm order... there is actually not enough, unless one of the following is true:
 - The planned peak frequency improvement for 2019/2020 will be rolled back once Arbutus extension opened
 - Short-turn trains introduced for the western half of the Millennium, while the eastern half sees frequency reduction
 - About half of the 6-cars MkI and all of 4-cars MkII on Expo Line would be replaced by 4-cars MkIII instead of 5-cars (order would be 13x 5-car trainset and 35x 4-car transet)
 - Millennium line remains 2-cars operation

Here is my approximation of the cars needed for each scenario:

100 replacement with 4-cars
25 expansion to 5-cars
16 Arbutus extension 2-cars
4 replacement for 4-MKII transfer to Arbutus (with 5-car trains)
76 Millennium expansion to 4-cars
19 replacement for 4-MKII and 4-MKIII transfer for M-Line expansion (with 5-car trains)

Total: 240 (short by 35 cars)

The first option of 30 cars are clearly for the Fleetwood expansion.  However, it is still not enough to raise the frequency of the entire Expo line in order to have "one in three" trains running at "4-5min peak frequency" for Langley branch, according to the presentation.

Hence I thought some of the MkI trains will remain in the fleet until midway through the delivery of the second option of 70 cars.  And even after the replacement, the remaining trains from this option is only enough for either one of Langley or UBC extension, but not both.

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3 hours ago, nname said:

About half of the 6-cars MkI and all of 4-cars MkII on Expo Line would be replaced by 4-cars MkIII instead of 5-cars (order would be 13x 5-car trainset and 35x 4-car transet)

I think this is the most true, and I'm looking at section 1.2 of the document:

Quote

A minimum of two-hundred and five (205) Cars to form forty-one (41) Trains comprised of a 5-Car consist (may include a number of 4-Car expandable Trains to 5-Car Trains);  

 

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1 hour ago, Express691 said:

I think this is the most true, and I'm looking at section 1.2 of the document:

 

That part is also unclear to me. I wonder if that means:

1. Some of the trains will be 4-cars, so there may be more than 41 trainsets in total
2. Some of the trains will be 4-cars, but there are still 41 trainsets in total
3. Some of the 41 trains are built in a way that it can easily switch between 4 and 5 cars in OMC
4. Some of the 41 trains will be built as 4-cars to start with, but the contract also include the conversion of those trains to 5-cars at a later date

All these should be clarified in the performance specification, but it was not for public...

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It's going to drive me crazy if they start off as 4-car sets numbered sequentially and then a 5th car is jammed in the middle creating beautiful sequences such as 501-502-641-503-504.

But yes I wish that more information is made available, but we probably won't find out until after a contract is signed and details are made public.

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Or maybe waiting for people like Kennith to get onto it. The media usually gets more information than us.

And if the train was designed for a middle car to be jammed in, they'll probably reserve a number in the sequence. But I'm still doubt TransLink will go this route. After all, they previously stated that (wrt to converting the 2-cars MkII to 4-cars) it doesn't make sense to add a new component onto something that had already been in service for years. If it is to be expandable, the expansion should happen rather soon after the delivery, probably within the time frame of the first few options.

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But if they do add cars to existing trains (which I think is still unlikely), perhaps they can switch to the Canada Line system and number by set. (E.g. 501-801-701-601, added car would be 501-901-801-701-601)

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On 8/6/2019 at 6:32 PM, nname said:

2019-2024: 150 MkI, 108 MkII, 56 MkIII
(assumption - WF-KG 81min rt; WF-PD 88min; WF-BW 20min; VC-LA 78min; 2.83/5.66min; EL req 45+3 trains; ML req 28 trains)
Expo (23x 6-I, 3x 2-II, 9x 4-II, 13x 4-III)
Millennium (28x 2-II)

 

2024-2026:  Broadway extension - 100-120 MkI, 108 MkII, 261 MkIII
(assumption - VC-AR 98min; ML convert to all 4-cars; 2.7/5.4min frequency; EL req 47+3 trains; ML req 37 trains)
Expo (12x 4-III, 38x 5-III, spare trains for Fleetwood extension testing)
Millennium (13x 6-I, 24x 4-II)

There will be 84 Mk IIIs after the current order is complete, not 56: 28 from 2016 and 56 for 2018-2020.

You're also over-allocating capacity for the Millennium Line - public facing information for the Broadway Extension show a frequency of 3-4 minutes and 7500 pphpd on the Millennium Line when the Broadway Extension opens. Your assumption of 2.7min frequency with 6-I/4-II trains will bring it up to around 10800 pphpd.

Let's assume the following:

1. A frequency of EL 1m53.3s/5min40s, ML 2min50s for the frequency adjustment in 2020 once all Mk IIIs are delivered.
2. All Mk IVs (or whatever they are) will be 5-car trains
3. All Mk Is will be retired by the Mk IVs.
4. Let's use the lower end of TransLink's frequency estimates for once the extensions open: 4 minutes for Millennium Line and 5 minutes for each Expo Line branch, as this will meet the passenger capacity targets anyway.

Current (2018/2019): 150 Mk I, 108 Mk II, 28 Mk III
(assumption - WF-KG 81min rt, WF-PD 88min; WF-BW 20min; VC-LA 78min; EL 2min13.3s/6min40s, ML 3min20s frequency; EL req 41+3, ML req 23 trains)
Expo (23x 6-I, 3x 2-II, 12x 4-II, 6x 4-III)
Millennium (23x 2-II)

September 2019: 150 Mk I, 108 Mk II, 56 Mk III
(assumption - EL 2min/6min, ML 3min frequency; EL req 45+3, ML req 26 trains)
Expo (23x 6-I, 3x 2-II, 10x 4-II, 12x 4-III)
Millennium (26x 2-II)

2020 (September?): 150 Mk I, 108 Mk II, 84 Mk III
(assumption - EL 1m53.3s/5min40s, ML 2min50s frequency; EL req 48+3, ML req 27 trains)
Expo (21x 6-I, 3x 2-II, 10x 4-II, 17x 4-III) - assume one fewer shuttle train
Millennium (27x 2-II)

2025 (Broadway Extension): 108 Mk II, 84 Mk III, 205 Mk IV
(assumption - all Mk Is replaced, Millennium using 4-car Mk IIs at 4 minutes, no more Expo shuttle trains; AR-LL 98min; EL 1m40/5min, ML 4min frequency; EL req 54, ML req 25 trains)
Expo (18x 4-III, 36x 5-IV) -> capacity = ~22500 pphpd
Millennium (25x 4-II) -> capacity = ~7550 pphpd
Spare (2x 4-II, 3x 4-III, 5x 5-IV - spare ratio 12.7%)

2026 (Fleetwood Extension WITHOUT optional order of 30 cars by 2025): 108 Mk II, 84 Mk III, 205 Mk IV
(assumption - WF-FL 100rt; EL 1m40/5min, ML 4min frequency; EL req 58, ML req 25 trains)
Expo (19x 4-III, 39x 5-IV)
Millennium (25x 4-II)
Spare (2x 4-II, 2x 4-III, 2x 5-IV - spare ratio 7.2%) <- slightly on the low side

2026 (Fleetwood Extension WITH optional order of 30 cars by 2025): 108 Mk II, 84 Mk III, 235 Mk IV
(assumption - WF-FL 100rt; EL 1m40/5min, ML 4min frequency; EL req 58, ML req 25 trains)
Expo (17x 4-III, 41x 5-IV)
Millennium (25x 4-II)
Spare (2x 4-II, 4x 4-III, 6x 5-IV - spare ratio 14.5%)

Given this plan, it's possible to have this done while retiring all Mk Is by 2026 and having exclusively 5-car trains for the Mk IV order. This assumes that the Expo Line will stop at Fleetwood and not Langley by 2026. If some Mk IVs are delivered as 4-car sets instead, the spare ratio will increase and it will be possible to build the Fleetwood Extension without the 2025 optional 30-car order.

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Would it not make more sense to order smaller fleets from different manufacturers rather than having all 205 cars be delivered from one manufacturer? Large orders like this take a lot of time to complete and having smaller fleets being built at the same time would make deliveries a lot faster, testing may take a bit longer due to different train models and whatnot.

I don't know, this was just a random thought that came to my mind.

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13 hours ago, 8010 said:

Would it not make more sense to order smaller fleets from different manufacturers rather than having all 205 cars be delivered from one manufacturer? Large orders like this take a lot of time to complete and having smaller fleets being built at the same time would make deliveries a lot faster, testing may take a bit longer due to different train models and whatnot.

I don't know, this was just a random thought that came to my mind.

The problem with that would be the logistical.  As in you would need to have enough spares parts for all the different fleets of vehicles, not to mention different training to operate, and maintain the various different vehicles.

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Not to mention... it'd cost more to ship if you went with different manufacturers. Once you consider economic geography, there are suddenly more pros/cons to consider with respect to costs

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