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Future TTC Bus Orders


FlyerD901
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On 4/14/2022 at 9:50 AM, Young said:

Yea in my mind I think for this order it’ll should be Arrow would get the new Nova hybrids sending the older Nova hybrids out to Malvern along with their artics after finch is converted to LRT then Malvern moved their Nova hybrids and some artics to McNicoll so then McNicoll sends their 3200s to Queensway to replace the 7900-8099 and then mount Dennis gets the new hybrid artics and the xde40s and maybe some of their Nova artics go to Wilson so Wilson can convert the 960 to artics unless they take artics off of Bathurst completely and just use those ones then Mount Dennis would send their artics to Scarborough to replace the SRT. Lol ok I’m done fantasizing on what the TTC should do but probably won’t 

I think this order will focus mainly on retiring the Orion OG hybrids and the NG hybrids. The OG diesels that I can see retiring is probably only the airport buses. Their replacements would be 3330-3342. I don't think the artics are expansion units. I believe that they are bus replacements along with the other buses in this order.

For the new 60ft XDE60s, it would be best to give them all to McNicoll for the 939/953, and then their diesel artics can go to Malvern for the 134/913, and 45 of McNicoll's diesels could move to Mount Dennis to begin retiring their Orion hybrids. The 927 would get the diesel artics from the 36 when line 6 opens so Arrow's artics would just stay where they are. The 935 can get artics but that would only work if they removed artics off of Keele completely (41/941/341) because they don't really need them. The 960 could get artics too, they should just remove artics completely from Bathurst and Weston (7/307 and 89) and some of Arrow Rd's artics (maybe 5 of them) can move to Wilson because the 927 might only need 20-25 artics to run the route. Removing artics from those local routes would improve headways and increase the frequency of service.

For the new 40ft LFS HEVs, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) nova hybrids are delivered to Malvern and replace all of their Orion hybrids

2) nova hybrids are delivered to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

3) nova hybrids are delivered to Eglinton, 134 of their nova diesels move to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

For the new 40ft XDE40s, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

2) new flyer hybrids are delivered to McNicoll and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

3) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Eglinton and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

For Wilson's Orion hybrids, they could be replaced by nova diesels from Arrow Rd since their fleet is currently over 300 when the most buses they send out for service is between 210 and 220 buses. That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

4 hours ago, Xtrazsteve said:

Perhaps they could order more artics beyond the 68 next year. They also mention in the past they wanted to test some artic ebus which they haven't oerder yet.

That would be interesting. We already know that new flyer has their XE60 electric artic and BYD has their K11M electric artic

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Thanks, just about the same time frame for OC I  think if I recall. I'm guessing by 2040-45, that most of Ontario's city owned/run bus systems will have entire fully e-bus fleet, but that's only a guess.

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30 minutes ago, Shemar said:

I think this order will focus mainly on retiring the Orion OG hybrids and the NG hybrids. The OG diesels that I can see retiring is probably only the airport buses. Their replacements would be 3330-3342. I don't think the artics are expansion units. I believe that they are bus replacements along with the other buses in this order.

For the new 60ft XDE60s, it would be best to give them all to McNicoll for the 939/953, and then their diesel artics can go to Malvern for the 134/913, and 45 of McNicoll's diesels could move to Mount Dennis to begin retiring their Orion hybrids. The 927 would get the diesel artics from the 36 when line 6 opens so Arrow's artics would just stay where they are. The 935 can get artics but that would only work if they removed artics off of Keele completely (41/941/341) because they don't really need them. The 960 could get artics too, they should just remove artics completely from Bathurst and Weston (7/307 and 89) and some of Arrow Rd's artics (maybe 5 of them) can move to Wilson because the 927 might only need 20-25 artics to run the route. Removing artics from those local routes would improve headways and increase the frequency of service.

For the new 40ft LFS HEVs, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) nova hybrids are delivered to Malvern and replace all of their Orion hybrids

2) nova hybrids are delivered to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

3) nova hybrids are delivered to Eglinton, 134 of their nova diesels move to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

For the new 40ft XDE40s, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

2) new flyer hybrids are delivered to McNicoll and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

3) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Eglinton and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

For Wilson's Orion hybrids, they could be replaced by nova diesels from Arrow Rd since their fleet is currently over 300 when the most buses they send out for service is between 210 and 220 buses. That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

That would be interesting. We already know that new flyer has their XE60 electric artic and BYD has their K11M electric artic

K11M! LMAO

What could be worse than a 40ft BYD model... one with an articulation joint in the middle of them! 😅

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29 minutes ago, Shemar said:

I think this order will focus mainly on retiring the Orion OG hybrids and the NG hybrids. The OG diesels that I can see retiring is probably only the airport buses. Their replacements would be 3330-3342. I don't think the artics are expansion units. I believe that they are bus replacements along with the other buses in this order.

For the new 60ft XDE60s, it would be best to give them all to McNicoll for the 939/953, and then their diesel artics can go to Malvern for the 134/913, and 45 of McNicoll's diesels could move to Mount Dennis to begin retiring their Orion hybrids. The 927 would get the diesel artics from the 36 when line 6 opens so Arrow's artics would just stay where they are. The 935 can get artics but that would only work if they removed artics off of Keele completely (41/941/341) because they don't really need them. The 960 could get artics too, they should just remove artics completely from Bathurst and Weston (7/307 and 89) and some of Arrow Rd's artics (maybe 5 of them) can move to Wilson because the 927 might only need 20-25 artics to run the route. Removing artics from those local routes would improve headways and increase the frequency of service.

For the new 40ft LFS HEVs, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) nova hybrids are delivered to Malvern and replace all of their Orion hybrids

2) nova hybrids are delivered to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

3) nova hybrids are delivered to Eglinton, 134 of their nova diesels move to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

For the new 40ft XDE40s, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

2) new flyer hybrids are delivered to McNicoll and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

3) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Eglinton and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

For Wilson's Orion hybrids, they could be replaced by nova diesels from Arrow Rd since their fleet is currently over 300 when the most buses they send out for service is between 210 and 220 buses. That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

That would be interesting. We already know that new flyer has their XE60 electric artic and BYD has their K11M electric artic

I don’t think Mount Dennis would get diesels cause it’s a hybrid and artic division I read because it runs through neighborhoods that are quiet and the diesel pollution isn’t the best in those neighborhoods that’s was what I saw years back on this forum but I’m not 100% if that’s the case now

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11 hours ago, Young said:

I don’t think Mount Dennis would get diesels cause it’s a hybrid and artic division I read because it runs through neighborhoods that are quiet and the diesel pollution isn’t the best in those neighborhoods that’s was what I saw years back on this forum but I’m not 100% if that’s the case now

The current artics are the biggest diesel drinker in the fleet. It’s not like the OG hybrids were really that efficient.

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5 hours ago, Young said:

I don’t think Mount Dennis would get diesels cause it’s a hybrid and artic division I read because it runs through neighborhoods that are quiet and the diesel pollution isn’t the best in those neighborhoods that’s was what I saw years back on this forum but I’m not 100% if that’s the case now

The nova artics that they have are diesels so you are contradicting your own statement.

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41 minutes ago, Young said:

I know they’re diesel and that’s exactly why they are placed on keele and dufferin cause they are busy main roads and they can’t pollute neighborhoods 

They cant pollute neighborhoods? What are you talking about?

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On 4/14/2022 at 11:43 AM, Xtrazsteve said:

Most buses on the SRT won’t be artics. Kennedy and STC can’t handle all of them plus most routes won’t run artics. It will be mainly the 939 Finch express running them and supplement by 134C/913 progress. 
 

I don’t get why you guys keep saying SRT bus replacement cause they aren’t running that but extending routes to Kennedy. 

 

Edit: 985 also runs artics that would be extended to Kennedy.

They should keep the OG hybrids for SRT shuttles. Those buses are still in good condition.  Emissions standards might be an issue thou. 

 

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9 hours ago, Young said:

I don’t think Mount Dennis would get diesels cause it’s a hybrid and artic division I read because it runs through neighborhoods that are quiet and the diesel pollution isn’t the best in those neighborhoods that’s was what I saw years back on this forum but I’m not 100% if that’s the case now

Indeed. Hybrids only emit bubbles.

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On 4/15/2022 at 10:57 AM, Shemar said:

I think this order will focus mainly on retiring the Orion OG hybrids and the NG hybrids. The OG diesels that I can see retiring is probably only the airport buses. Their replacements would be 3330-3342. I don't think the artics are expansion units. I believe that they are bus replacements along with the other buses in this order.

For the new 60ft XDE60s, it would be best to give them all to McNicoll for the 939/953, and then their diesel artics can go to Malvern for the 134/913, and 45 of McNicoll's diesels could move to Mount Dennis to begin retiring their Orion hybrids. The 927 would get the diesel artics from the 36 when line 6 opens so Arrow's artics would just stay where they are. The 935 can get artics but that would only work if they removed artics off of Keele completely (41/941/341) because they don't really need them. The 960 could get artics too, they should just remove artics completely from Bathurst and Weston (7/307 and 89) and some of Arrow Rd's artics (maybe 5 of them) can move to Wilson because the 927 might only need 20-25 artics to run the route. Removing artics from those local routes would improve headways and increase the frequency of service.

For the new 40ft LFS HEVs, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) nova hybrids are delivered to Malvern and replace all of their Orion hybrids

2) nova hybrids are delivered to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

3) nova hybrids are delivered to Eglinton, 134 of their nova diesels move to Arrow Rd, and 134 buses from the 2019 nova hybrid fleet gets moved to Malvern to replace all of their Orion hybrids

For the new 40ft XDE40s, three scenarios that I can see playing out:

1) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

2) new flyer hybrids are delivered to McNicoll and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

3) new flyer hybrids are delivered to Eglinton and 134 of their nova diesels move to Mount Dennis to replace their Orion hybrids

For Wilson's Orion hybrids, they could be replaced by nova diesels from Arrow Rd since their fleet is currently over 300 when the most buses they send out for service is between 210 and 220 buses. That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

That would be interesting. We already know that new flyer has their XE60 electric artic and BYD has their K11M electric artic

Looking at the current fleet. Even through there is a chance the XDE60 would end up at Mt Dennis, they do work better in fleet planning if they went to McNicoll for the 939/953. The number of buses needed for 939 was 48 in AM Peak (Feb 2020) which can reduce to ~39 artics. Adding 18 artics for 953 gives 57 with 11 spares. The only question is does the 939C need artics? Or they should maintain their current headways which would be better for Malvern area riders.

The procurement schedule is still plan (unchanged from Oct 2020) as 298 this year and 38 next year. Originally planned for delivery in Q1 but I don't see any arriving till Q3/Q4 at least. Probably Novas would come first since there would be minimal changes from the last order but this all depend on parts.

Since this is the last HEV buses the TTC is ordering ever, it would be wise they keep the Nova HEVs at Arrow and Malvern only. I don't see Eglinton getting any of these for this reason. TTC does plan to have a total of 130 ebus at Arrow by 2025 but only 44 for Malvern. So there is a possibility that a small amount would migrate elsewhere. 

Unlike 2018, there is no point of comparing the two HEV fleets since they aren't getting more. The XDE40s could go with the XDE60s. McNicoll should have gotten to maintaining Novas, Mt Dennis however are still dealing with Orions, why not refresh their fleet with Flyers?

 ---

In terms of artic fleet, The 7, 29 and 941 can all keep their artics. The 927 doesn't need anywhere near 20-25 artics. It needs only 14 for AM, 10 for 927D and 4 for 927C. Assuming it can survive from AM to PM rush without running out of fuel.

For AM rush, the following we keep pre-pandemic capacity:
7 BATHURST - 15
29 DUFFERIN - 16
929 DUFFERIN EXPRESS - 12
134C/913 PROGESS (EXPRESS) - 6
927 HIGHWAY 27 EPXRESS - 14 (4 for 927C, 10 for 927D)
935 JANE EXPRESS - 10
939 FINCH EXPRESS - 39 (12 for 939A, 15 for 939B, 12 for 939C)
941 KEELE EXPRESS - 7
953 STEELES EAST EXPRESS - 18
960 STEELES WEST EXPRESS - 15
985 SHEPPARD EAST EXPRESS - 13

Total : 165

For PM rush:
7 BATHURST - 18
29 DUFFERIN - 20
929 DUFFERIN EXPRESS - 12
134C/913 PROGESS (EXPRESS) - 6
927 HIGHWAY 27 EXPRESS - 16 (5 for 927C, 11 for 927D)
935 JANE EXPRESS - 9
939 FINCH EXPRESS - 25 (7 for 939A, 10 for 939B, 8 for 939C)
941 KEELE EXPRESS - 9
953 STEELES EAST EXPRESS - 18
960 STEELES WEST EXPRESS - 14
985 SHEPPARD EAST EXPRESS - 17

Total : 164

Even if the 927 needs a complete fleet swap, all these routes can operate with artics simultaneously. This also gives 10-15 more for SRT extensions as the total artics would be 218.

 

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Don't forget the LFSAs will be close to their 12 yrs mark after the SRT is closed. Somehow I doubt the first batch of electric buses will be artics hence we'll be down a significant amount of artics by that time unless they plan on keeping all artics until at least 15 yrs?

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38 minutes ago, Cityflyer said:

Don't forget the LFSAs will be close to their 12 yrs mark after the SRT is closed. Somehow I doubt the first batch of electric buses will be artics hence we'll be down a significant amount of artics by that time unless they plan on keeping all artics until at least 15 yrs?

There is no hard and fast rule obliging the TTC to retire the buses once they hit the age of 12. It seems to be more of a "nice to have" guideline they have, and has only remotely come true in the case of the later 7400 series Orion VIIs which retired at 13. If they are necessary for service, they will run even if they are past the 12 year mark. Which they are not at, yet; the SRT closes next year which would make the first artics 10 years and the bulk of the order only 9.

In a recent article about the results of the e-bus study, Steve Munro indicates that the TTC seems to be moving back to an 18 year lifespan.

https://stevemunro.ca/2022/04/10/ttc-ebus-study-final-results/

An 18-Year Design Life

Although the TTC report does not mention this, the actual RFP includes an interesting specification for fleet longevity. This signals a return to 18-year lifespans for the bus fleet after a retreat to 12 years in current fleet planning. If this can be achieved, it will offset the higher capital cost of the vehicles compared to hybrids or diesel buses.

1.1.1 The Bus shall have an 18-year design life and be equipped with a long life structure in accordance with Specification Section 1.8, made from full stainless steel in accordance with Specification Section 3.0, have a body with a maximum overall length of 12.8 m (42ft.) including a stowed Bike Rack , 2.59 m (8 ft.-6 in.) in width and a maximum overall height of 3.4 m (134 in.).

RFP Technical Requirements Section 1, Page 6

Later in the RFP:

1.8 SERVICE LIFE

Buses shall be designed for a minimum service life of 18 years or 1,610,000 km (1,000,000 mi.), under severe operating conditions similar to revenue transit operation in the City of Toronto.

RFP Technical Requirements Section 1, Page 19

And in more detail:

The vehicle design life shall be validated by successful completion of a simulated 12-year average New York City duty cycle service life. The test program shall be designed around input measurements taken from a vehicle configured similarly to the test vehicle while it’s being operated over a known severe route. The New York City B.35 route or an approved equivalent (i.e., the Queens Q.44 route is now reportedly used by New York City), shall be used for a simulated 800,000 km (500,000 mi.) to demonstrate Bus longevity. This is generally considered to be the equivalent of 16 to 18 years operating life at all
other transit properties.

RFP Technical Requirements Section 1, Page 20

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More news on the TTC's NFI order. 363 additional options could be exercised in the next 4 years, 202 firm orders:

NFI Group Inc. (“NFI”), a leading independent bus and coach manufacturer and a leader in electric mass mobility solutions, today announced that its subsidiary New Flyer Industries Canada ULC (“New Flyer”) has received new firm orders from the Toronto Transit Commission (“TTC”) for 134 Xcelsior ® forty-foot hybrid-electric heavy-duty transit buses, and 68 Xcelsior sixty-foot hybrid-electric buses (136 equivalent units or “EUs”) for a total of 270 EUs. The two four-year contracts include options for up to an additional 263 forty-foot hybrid-electric buses and 100 sixty-foot buses, respectively.

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2 hours ago, T3G said:

There is no hard and fast rule obliging the TTC to retire the buses once they hit the age of 12. It seems to be more of a "nice to have" guideline they have, and has only remotely come true in the case of the later 7400 series Orion VIIs which retired at 13. If they are necessary for service, they will run even if they are past the 12 year mark. Which they are not at, yet; the SRT closes next year which would make the first artics 10 years and the bulk of the order only 9.

In a recent article about the results of the e-bus study, Steve Munro indicates that the TTC seems to be moving back to an 18 year lifespan.

https://stevemunro.ca/2022/04/10/ttc-ebus-study-final-results/

 

 

His discussion of moving to 18 yrs life cycle are for the electric buses since they offset the higher purchase cost VS diesel and hybrids. It does not mean current fleet will retire at 18 yrs.

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50 minutes ago, Cityflyer said:

His discussion of moving to 18 yrs life cycle are for the electric buses since they offset the higher purchase cost VS diesel and hybrids. It does not mean current fleet will retire at 18 yrs.

The point isn't just price but an electric only vehicle doesn't have all the combustion engine problems that start to fail after 15 years. In the past, streetcars are designed for 30 years while the Wester Flyer trolleys were using older components in a new shell. They should be able to keep the bus for longer if they are getting a quality bus.

Artics have been a problem in the past as their articulated joint causes the bus to fall apart. Since the frame is usually one of the determining point if the bus should retire, it'll depend on how were theses LFSAs have held up by 12-15 years.

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48 minutes ago, Cityflyer said:

His discussion of moving to 18 yrs life cycle are for the electric buses since they offset the higher purchase cost VS diesel and hybrids. It does not mean current fleet will retire at 18 yrs.

But the current fleet also will have to be replaced by electrics. So if you can postpone doing that until the buses are 18, instead of 12...

 

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Toronto’s TTC awards contracts for up to 565 buses to NFI

 

So there's an option to get more 40fts and 60ft buses. 

Quote

The two four-year contracts include options for up to an additional 263 forty-foot hybrid-electric buses and 100 sixty-foot buses, respectively. In total, NFI will add 733 EUs to its backlog from firm and option orders.

 

I wonder if Nova has something similar. if NFI doesn't meet the target, Nova picks up an extension?  

3 minutes ago, drum118 said:

Looks like we posted at the same time

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45 minutes ago, FlyerD901 said:

Toronto’s TTC awards contracts for up to 565 buses to NFI

 

So there's an option to get more 40fts and 60ft buses. 

 

I wonder if Nova has something similar. if NFI doesn't meet the target, Nova picks up an extension?  

Looks like we posted at the same time

The option isn't suppose to be exercised if the ebus procurement goes according to plan. This is supposedly the last batch of hybrid buses EVER. We'll see how it goes.

The bus procurement plan as of now:

greenbusprocurement.thumb.png.fe582d947e53f2e6ffff9c826ea2b885.png

https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Public-Meetings/Board/2022/April-14/Presentations/10_TTCs_Green_Bus_Program_Final_Results_of_TTCs_Head-to-Head_-eBus-_Ev.pdf?rev=2f8d62f785094149b02b888028555249&hash=397B47F0817991968AAE9738E36AF9A9

 

Maybe the options could be negotiated and converted to ebuses. 

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2 hours ago, Xtrazsteve said:

The option isn't suppose to be exercised if the ebus procurement goes according to plan. This is supposedly the last batch of hybrid buses EVER. We'll see how it goes.

The bus procurement plan as of now:

greenbusprocurement.thumb.png.fe582d947e53f2e6ffff9c826ea2b885.png

https://ttc-cdn.azureedge.net/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Public-Meetings/Board/2022/April-14/Presentations/10_TTCs_Green_Bus_Program_Final_Results_of_TTCs_Head-to-Head_-eBus-_Ev.pdf?rev=2f8d62f785094149b02b888028555249&hash=397B47F0817991968AAE9738E36AF9A9

 

Maybe the options could be negotiated and converted to ebuses. 

The thing is this shouldn't be the 'final' hybrid bus order. There is still so much to learn from this eBus technology and the electric bus industry hasn't evolved enough yet for transit agencies to go all in on these electric buses. The TTC should continue to order hybrids and slowly increment the amount of electric buses that are ordered as the technology improves. Plus, it's more expensive to purchase these buses as well. I get that they want to reduce GHG emissions to 0% by 2040 but I just think that its too soon to be just ordering battery electric buses 2023 and onwards.

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7 hours ago, Shemar said:

The thing is this shouldn't be the 'final' hybrid bus order. There is still so much to learn from this eBus technology and the electric bus industry hasn't evolved enough yet for transit agencies to go all in on these electric buses. The TTC should continue to order hybrids and slowly increment the amount of electric buses that are ordered as the technology improves. Plus, it's more expensive to purchase these buses as well. I get that they want to reduce GHG emissions to 0% by 2040 but I just think that its too soon to be just ordering battery electric buses 2023 and onwards.

Politics have really gotten in the way as TTC wasn't even considering hybrid buses till 2018. City council and some on the then board thought they want to do something tangible within a few years. Now they are spending a lot more and hope it can be offset by magical numbers. If gas prices remain high, this might work in TTC's favour. 

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16 hours ago, Xtrazsteve said:

The point isn't just price but an electric only vehicle doesn't have all the combustion engine problems that start to fail after 15 years. In the past, streetcars are designed for 30 years while the Wester Flyer trolleys were using older components in a new shell. They should be able to keep the bus for longer if they are getting a quality bus.

Artics have been a problem in the past as their articulated joint causes the bus to fall apart. Since the frame is usually one of the determining point if the bus should retire, it'll depend on how were theses LFSAs have held up by 12-15 years.

I wouldn’t base one’s opinion of artic buses based solely on the ikarus’ spectacular metallurgy.

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